18 Comments

I heard about your stack thru Alexander Mercouris who despite being long winded in the wind pipe is one of the highest recommends you can get, and his channel The Duran, and the other Alex, have been a go to source for sanity in all this madness, one of too few

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Since people rarely say so, I want to note here that it was terribly wrong of America to antagonize Russia thru NATO Hato in the former Ukraine, now Little Russia.

That damm bill package the House passed to expel Mike Johnson has zero funding for America, except laundering funds for the poor military CONtractors

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This is required reading for anyone wishing to know about this SMO.

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A lucid, well organized and compelling letter. Thank you Sir for taking the time and effort to write this masterful piece. The patrimony of Washington, Jefferson and Madison has been squandered and instead we are under the control of a potent nefarious neo-con cabal.. May God bless you and may you continue to educate us.

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Absolutely excellent review and assessment of the state of the Conflict!

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Very good analysis, and a good tour of recent history.

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Yes, that's how I found this. High praise, who wouldn't be curious.

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This is an exceptional SITREP. I am a retired O-6 and this is the sort of IBP a commander needs (and should expect). Unfortunately, I listened to countless SITREPs in Iraq, the daily BUB to General O, and often wondered if we were talking about the same war. I doubt it will improve until we suffer a calamitous setback. Something on par with the fall of the Philippines.

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Good summary of events but they don't care about Ukrainians or even America/Americans. Goal is line pockets of donors and thiers. And if delay improves Biden's chances to beat Trump all the better. Biden is a dream candidate for the sprawling permanent corrupt apparatus in Washington and does whatever they want and is looting Treasury for them at 3 trillion deficit/yr.

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I thought Arestovich is in New York, not in Crimea

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Apr 24·edited May 4

Here is some information about Ukrainian losses. This info is for the summer 2023, i.e. almost a year ago.

1. We can start with Russian defense ministry data. As far as I remember, on average they estimated Ukrainian losses at 8-12 thousand per month, and in the first 2 months of 2023 offensive - 20-25 thousand. Total, about 200 thousand.

2. There is this portal: https://wartears.org/posts/math-model/. They have named lists of 160 thousand dead Ukrainians. They estimate the total losses at 250 thousand. Their methodology is similar to that of Mediazona, i.e. they collect information from open sources.

3. There is a survey by the Kyiv Institute of Sociology (https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1254&page=1), according to which 63% of Ukrainians have a dead relative or close friend. I've seen estimates (unfortunately, I can't find the article) that this means 180,000 dead.

4. There is a count of obituaries, similar to Mediazona’s - https://www.kp.ru/daily/27536/4802291/, estimate: 285 thousand. The number is almost 2 times different from Wartears' count above. But Wartears provide the full data, including names, etc.

5. There are estimates of the number of wounded with amputations: https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-ukraine-a-surge-in-amputations-reveals-the-human-cost-of-russias-war-d0bca320. There is a paywall, but they say that the number of such disabled people is up to 50 thousand. In comparison with other conflicts, this gives the number of killed about 190 thousand.

6. There is data on “dead” SIM cards: https://t.me/i20028843/120949. These are very high numbers - about a million. It is probably not necessary that a “dead” SIM card means a deceased person. Maybe the phone is just lost/damaged or something like that.

7. Satellite data on the growth of cemeteries: https://t.me/IntelRepublic/25183. Based on extrapolation, they give 400 thousand dead. But I would treat these estimates with caution, because they extrapolate just 7 cemeteries to the whole of Ukraine.

In general, the most plausible estimate is around 200-250 thousand. I repeat again, this figure is for July-August 2023.

P.S. It may sound strange, but Russian defense ministry gives very conservative figures of Ukrainian losses, closer to the lower end...

P.P.S. Statement that in 2022 Ukrainian and Russian losses were similar, sounds very strange, given the above figures...

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Thank you for this outstanding work - sadly, they are doing the opposite. Reading Steinbeck / Capa A RUSSIAN JOURNAL : "... we suggested that curtains were a prelude of war, and that if war should come it could be for only one of two reasons - either through stupidity, or through intent, and if it was through intent on the part of any leaders, then those leaders should be removed, and if it was through stupidity, then the causes should be more closely inspected...." I think they have lost the excuse of stupidity. Thank you again!

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WOW came by way of Natylie's Baldwin. I'll be checking once in a while.

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"Fearing arrest or assassination by Budanov, Arestovich relocated last year to Crimea." I am sure this is a slip of the pen but I have Arestovich in self exile Estonia?

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Is this a one-off, or will you be writing more on the conflict and associated domestic and international factors?

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I bet this a lot of work. I’m going to assume every other week is a good pace

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